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Roth or traditional?

Roth: pay tax now, and qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Traditional: you may get a deduction now and pay tax when you withdraw. Pick your bracket now and in retirement for a verdict. The advanced assumptions (RMDs, Social Security tax, Medicare surcharges) are already on, with sensible defaults you can change.

Educational only, not financial advice

This tool shows general math, not a recommendation for you. It isn’t financial, tax or legal advice, and real returns, fees and tax rules will differ. Talk to a qualified professional before making decisions. What you enter stays in your browser: nothing is saved or sent to us.

2026 brackets, by taxable income (after deductions).

%

Today’s brackets. Use the rate-change slider below for future law changes.

$

The 2026 IRA limit: $7,500, or $8,600 at 50 or older.

The traditional tax savings

Traditional lowers your taxes today. Do you invest that savings or spend it?

Based on these assumptions

Roth likely comes out ahead by about $116,982

After tax, in today’s dollars, valued at retirement.

Roth $498,291, traditional $381,309.

Break-even: Traditional wins only if your combined tax rate in retirement is below about 7.1%. You entered 22%.

If you invested the tax savings instead: Roth ahead by about $67,573.

What drives this

  • Both accounts get $7,500 a year. The Roth balance at retirement ($498,291) is all yours; the traditional balance ($498,291) still owes income tax.
  • Traditional’s tax savings ($49,500 in total) are counted as spent: their face value, with no growth.
  • Traditional withdrawals make more of your Social Security taxable and can add Medicare IRMAA surcharges, costing about $56,858. Roth withdrawals don’t count toward either.
Advanced assumptions(all on, with the defaults shown)

Default: until 65.

Default: 25. The account is spent down evenly.

%

Default: 5%. Same for every account. Not a forecast.

1. Max-out mode

Contributing the same dollars to either account: a Roth dollar is after tax, so at the limit a Roth shelters more money. Off: the Roth gets the contribution minus today’s tax (same cost).

2. Invested tax savings: tax drag

Used when you choose “I’d invest it” above: the savings go into a taxable brokerage account, where dividends are taxed each year and gains when sold at retirement.

%

Default: 2%, part of the return above.

Qualified dividend and long-term gain rates (IRS Topic 409), plus your state rate.

3. Required minimum distributions

Traditional IRAs must pay out from age 75 for you (73 if born before 1960), using the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. Anything above your planned withdrawal is taxed and reinvested in a taxable account. Roth IRAs have no RMDs for the owner.

4. Social Security taxation and Medicare IRMAA

Traditional withdrawals count toward the income that makes up to 85% of Social Security taxable, and toward Medicare’s income-related surcharges from 65. Roth withdrawals don’t. Uses 2026 thresholds, held fixed in today’s dollars.

$

Default: the SSA’s estimated average for 2026 (retired worker), × 12.

Default: 67. Use 62 to 70.

$

Blank: the least that puts you in your retirement bracket ($10,022).

5. Future tax rate change

Points added to (or taken off) the federal rate on withdrawals, for future law changes. Default: no change.

−50+10
%

Default: same as now. Use 0 if you plan to move to a state without income tax.

6. Leave it to heirs

Instead of spending it down, you take only RMDs and leave the rest. Most heirs must empty an inherited IRA within 10 years: Roth passes tax-free, traditional is taxed at their rate.

How it compares

  • Today’s dollars. The return is after inflation, and tax brackets and thresholds are held at 2026 levels.
  • Value at retirement, after tax. Roth: the balance. Traditional: every after-tax withdrawal, discounted to your retirement date at the same return, plus anything reinvested, plus the tax savings from contributing.
  • Spent tax savings count at face value with no growth. Invested savings pay tax on dividends each year and on gains when sold at retirement.
  • One rate per period. Withdrawals are taxed at your retirement bracket plus state rate. It isn’t a full tax return: deductions beyond the 2026 standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 joint, $24,150 head of household), the extra deductions at 65, and state tax on Social Security are left out.
  • RMDs start at 73, or 75 if you were born in 1960 or later. The rules for people born in 1959 are unsettled, so this tool uses 73. Spouse beneficiaries and inherited-IRA payouts are not modeled.
  • Social Security and IRMAA use the IRS Pub. 915 worksheet and the 2026 SSA tiers for single filers (or both spouses when filing jointly). Medicare uses income from two years earlier; this tool uses the same year. Other taxable income defaults to the least that fits the retirement bracket you chose.
  • Heirs pay tax on inherited traditional money at the rate you enter; taxable investments get a stepped-up basis.
  • It doesn’t check whether you can deduct a traditional IRA or contribute to a Roth IRA at your income, or the rules that make Roth withdrawals qualified. See the Roth IRA and traditional IRA pages.

The 2026 IRA limit is $7,500, or $8,600 at 50 or older, shared across Roth and traditional IRAs. Results are estimates based on these assumptions, for education only, not tax advice.

Sources

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